8+ CryptoCurrency Brutally Honest Market Predictions from the people who invented it.
A year ago, Alex Tapscott (my blockchain revolution co-author) and I made some predictions for 2017. At the end of the year compared with these predictions with what really happened. In general, they got up well.
Specifically, we said: “Bitcoin reaches $ 2,000 (that’s right: a value of $ 2,000 bitcoin.) Ethereum will not be after the OAC collapse, but will become a dominant platform for new applications and business models.”
We were ridiculed that Bitcoin would almost triple its value. “You’re crazy,” was a popular tweet. Of course, only the wild world of cryptocurrency can set a one-year price target that includes a return of nearly 200%, and lose the mark by a factor of nearly 10%! As for the Ethereum, the fork arrived and Ethereum continues to function, became the platform for the Defacto boom ICO (first coin game), the thousand DAPPS (distributed applications) distributed files memory and kitty of the prediction collectibles.
2017 was a year when cryptocurrency markets dominated public imagination. While some of us were excited about the explosion of new applications, platforms and technologies, many others just happy to navigate the wave of higher prices. In fact, the value of these assets has risen from $ 15 billion to $ 500 billion, one of the big bull markets of our time.
Is it justified? Today’s valuations reflect the value of tomorrow, and the value of tomorrow could be significant and revolutionary. Therefore, considering the whole market as the best representation of the future value of blockchain technology, the present value could be considered conservative. However, it is difficult to observe the spectacular escalation in the prices of almost all crypto devices and the euphoria that drives the market ever more and not to feel the skepticism that causes dizziness.
Remember, at the beginning of 2016, only one crypto-wizard (Bitcoin) was worth more than $ 1 billion. Today, the number is 36. The number of newly invented cryptocubic species should blush even the largest. And it goes without saying that many, if not most, of these new currencies, protocols and applications will fail. But from this outbreak of Cambrian innovation, the basic technologies for the new Internet of value creation will emerge.
But what was really achieved?
As Vitalik Buterin, creator of Ethereum eloquently asked:
How many people without a bank account have we deposited? How have much trading against censorship for ordinary people we activated? How many [distributed] Dapps applications have we created that have significant value? How much value is there in smart contracts? How many Venezuelans have we protected by hyperinflation? To what extent does the actual use of micropayment channels actually exist?
Buterin noted that the level of activity is positive, but not large enough to guarantee the value of $ 0.5 billion (now more than $ 650 billion). “The answer to all these questions is certainly not null, and in some cases, it’s pretty important, but not enough to say that they have a significant level of $ 0.5T, that’s not enough.”
On the one hand, mutual funds have changed the world of venture capital. On the other hand, few, if any, distributed applications run commercially and on a large scale (that is, they do not work … yet). On the one hand, Bitcoin has experienced a massive take-up and a sharp rise in prices, resulting in institutional acceptance, mass-market appeal and a futures market. On the other hand, irritating questions about scope and governance remain partially or completely unanswered.
The regulatory uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin shifts from a marginal curiosity to a legitimate currency threat issued by the central bank (as a store of value but as a medium of exchange).
Ethereum became the first versatile platform for building distributed applications. However, an excess of ICO activity or even an increase in crypto kinetic trafficking can slow or stop the network, as it did in December.
1- Despite its incredible potential, Blockchain is far from changing the world.
2018 will be the year in which the tremendous innovation and promise of Blockchain must become reality. Otherwise, the market expects a brutal awakening. And maybe it’s not the worst thing in the world.
We generally remain positive in the market. Forget a massive and permanent shock. Cryptoassets will be volatile and there will be breaks, but a general appreciation is expected as long as the innovation continues in functionality.
We are still in the initial phase. It is interesting to note that the explosive rise in bitcoin prices is allowing new investors to justify their intervention, as it is now a large asset class too important to be ignored. Institutional purchasing of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will be widespread in 2018, but buyers need to be careful: to maintain bitcoins, scaling solutions must work in the real world and in critical situations. Governance needs to be resolved.
We will see that an avalanche of institutional, commercial and family funds is entering the market. Many people and organizations have not invested for security reasons: they can not or do not want to have private keys. You probably should learn how to do it, but still, this problem is solved. Coinbase has safes where they store cryptographic resources. New markets are created, such as trading in funds and futures offered by traditional financial services companies.
But over the next few years, most cryptocoins in the top 10 will be replaced by platforms that have more powerful features, just as many of the more advanced actions of the dotcom era have been replaced by powerful new companies like Amazon. , Google and Facebook
2. The craziness of the cryptocurrency is extended to cover commercial transformations of the blockchain
The Blockchain Research Institute explores how Blockchain promises to transform 10 key sectors: financial services, consumer and retail goods, government and democracy, energy, higher education, transportation, manufacturing, media and telecommunications, technology, health, and resources. , In all these industries, we already see amazing innovations driven by massive organizations. Supply chains are a $ 60 trillion industry that includes giants like Foxconn and Walmart who dig themselves into the chain of blocks for transformative implementations. As Tom Serres and Bettina Warburg show in one of our projects, supply chains are destined to become cognitive machines with a “network state” enriched with knowledge and steeped in “trust in the machine”. ,
Meanwhile, many of the best new companies are designed in decentralized models. This corresponds to the dotcom fever of the mid and late 1990s, many dot-coms have failed, which is typical of a wave of technological innovation. But today, many are dominant players in the modern digital economy. As with dotcoms, many “blockcoms” should fail.
3- The new value creation platform will be created
Bitcoin is still just a currency and a stock-store. Think of it as the first major Internet application of value, such as e-mail, which was the first major application of its predecessor, Internet of Information. But what will the World Wide Web, the versatile application development platform, be?
Be aware that Ethereum continues to grow, not just in value, but also in the number of innovative dapps that emerge in it. In 2018 you will go from the work test to the participation test. But will ethereum be the platform for the next generation of distributed applications? Will it be one of the basic protocols of the new Internet of Value, or will there be something else? He is currently the best candidate for an “Open” and is working hard to develop his skills, including Casper and Sharding updates and a change in the participation test.
The new platforms to be seen in 2018 include Cosmos, Aion, ICON, and Polkadot, all of which could help solve the critical issues of scalability, interoperability, and governance. These new platforms are different from their predecessors as they have been designed from the beginning to overcome many existing bottlenecks. These third-generation “blockchains” are unique in that they seek to achieve all of the following objectives: intelligent contract functionality, interoperability, scalability, customization, and the ability to be both multi-asset and multi-industry solutions. If they succeed, that is a big question that we want to answer in 2018.
4- ICOs generating funding by equity Tokens
In 2017, the ICO raised funds for public service brands. However, fatigue was noted towards the end of the year. Most symbolic takeovers were motivated by the prospect of short-term speculative gains. However, the ICO’s promise is not to allow speculation, but to finance innovation.
In 2018, there will be many opportunities for new ICOs: high yielding currencies based on pioneering work on anonymity, scope, and fungibility, product chips, loyalty or social token tokens are carbon where the chips are of value. as a share of property in a company. Still in their infancy, but probably exploding in value are security chip crypto assets that represent financial assets such as stocks, bonds, and futures.
Consider an ICO of 10 billion teslas. Here is a thought experiment: There are at least 10 million Tesla fans in the world who can not buy Tesla (because they live in places like Nigeria, Pakistan, where you can not buy Tesla, or do not have enough money). But I would like to be part of the community and have an interest in the future of the business and could easily spend $ 1,000 on a three-part model or TeslaToken in any form. Then, with an international organization, Tesla could raise $ 10,000 x 1,000 = $ 10 billion more than they could muster in stock markets or bond markets. This smart security could simply be a simple feature in a new product or the company itself or could be programmed to include other features, such as carbon offset, to make people reduce their footprints.
5- Blockchain can work for the Good
Under the feudal regime, the owners owned large tracts of land. The servants worked the land to add value, but the owner confiscated most of the value. Today, the new asset class is created by us and tracked by our digital owners (social networking companies, search engines, governments, banks, etc.). We need to regain this information, our “digital identity,” and manage it responsibly for our own benefit.
By blocking the chain, people (as well as physical and digital objects) can have unique and unchanging identities in a “digital black box”. They will collect data from which we can derive economic benefits to help us plan our lives and protect our privacy. The identities in the search string are processed by multiple sources. In 2018, you should count on technology companies like ConportSys, Civic or Sovrin to give people authority and autonomy in their identity. Some or the best innovations want to be bottom-up as hospital and university institutions build up blockchain identities for their members. We want a new class of data aggregators to emerge. They want to negotiate with people and access their data.
More than ten years ago, my company coined the term “digital conglomerates” to refer to a new kind of business. Companies like Facebook, Amazon, Apple, and Alphabet are very successful in centralized models and data collection.
This is a repeat of 1994. Despite the decline in the dotcoms of 2001, the Internet is now more positive and critical than ever.
6- Some big names will join in
There is no doubt that blockchain technology represents an existential threat to the world’s largest digital conglomerates. But next year, we want to see these companies adopt cryptocurrencies and even many other blockchain technology applications. Prepare for the Empire to attack again.
On December 12, 2017, Facebook’s Messenger Manager David Marcus announced that he would join the Coinbase directory. I have no doubt that Facebook is investigating cryptocurrency payments on the Facebook Messenger platform or other token-related initiatives. We can even see a purchase attempt by Facebook.
It would not be the only acquisition of a blockchain company by a large digital conglomerate. Google is already the second largest investor in blockchain technology this year, and we can assume it will continue as the public’s interest in blockchain explodes.
In December 2017, Amazon announced a partnership with R3 to make its platform one of the first distributed bookkeeping technologies in Amazon Web Services. Is this a signal of what will come for Amazon that can lose a lot of retailers with chain stores? In any case.
7. Implementation of cryptocurrencies Fiat (finally)
It goes back to the famous address of the Bank of England 2016, Mark Carney, Mansion House, which has been widely used to promote their fiduciary currencies. I do not want to be hyperbolic, but I think this decision can be just as important as the Bretton Woods consensus to switch to a reserve currency in US dollars. This could fundamentally shape the next 100 years of human prosperity.
8- Constant clash with regulations
2017 has brought some interesting developments with China, Russia, Dubai and Venezuela (and other countries that are not exactly the pillars of democracy) that point the way. Most cryptocurrencies called “Fiat” are nothing like that, but try to act as innovators and undermine independent cryptocurrencies. In 2018, we hope to see you in Switzerland, Singapore, Canada, India, Estonia, South Korea, Japan and the United Kingdom.
In the meantime, Bitcoin and other real cryptocurrencies should deepen their usefulness as a real medium of exchange. There are thousands of large or medium-sized businesses that accept Bitcoin for the payment of goods and services. There are Marquesas organizations like Overstock.com, Newegg, Shopify.com, Dish Network and even Microsoft and Paypal. 2017 was a good year for many. They did not convert their bitcoins into Fiat currency and used the explosion of bitcoin value.
There is evidence that a growing number of retailers and major service providers will accept Bitcoin (and cryptocurrency in general) as a means of payment by 2018.
9- Drawbacks exposed substantially
There are many use cases that are prepared for great growth in 2018. The Blockchain killer application, however, can literally save the planet. It’s time to run decentralized energy and energy token trading on an equal footing. In November, I delivered the opening address to the BIXPO 2017 Global Energy Conference in Gwangju, Korea, and what surprised us about the blockchain initiatives of the Korean energy company Kepko. Companies like Spectral Energy in the Netherlands and LO3 Energy and Grid in the US are groundbreaking.
Blockchain and Smart Contracts for sustainable support. Symbolized emissions credits are processed through intelligent contracts in markets such as Veridium. I see companies like CarbonX Personal Carbon Trading and Zerofootprint Software that allow people to reward and manage their personal carbon footprint. And I see companies that offset excessive CO2 emissions in their supply chains to create CO2 neutrality in the manufacturing of products and services.
10. A year of growing crypto elasticity
There will be exchanges, portfolios, and applications to hack, but the overall robustness of blockchain and cryptography will increase. Call them “resilience technologies”. They have an anti-fragility model that increases their capacity and strength in response to attacks, effects, stressors or outages. The more crypto coins are attacked, the stronger they become. , China bans the ICOs and alludes to Bitcoin trading, and the value of Bitcoin goes up in Ethereum. The DAO is under attack and Etereum is taking red dog measures to become more robust and secure. It’s not Whack-a-Mole, it’s Block-a-Mole!
In terms of exaggeration and criticism? Both want to grow over the next two decades. This is a repeat of 1994. Despite the decline in the dotcoms of 2001, the Internet is now more positive and critical than ever.
Like We always say, hope for the best, PREPARE FOR THE WORST. Do Invest in crypto but don’t go all out. Save something for rainy days. Invest only what you have spare, lying without a reason in your bank account. Do find a genuine business online or offline to make a profitable investment.